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Aftershocks

Aftershocks are earthquakes that follow a larger mainshock in the same region as the crust readjusts. They can continue for days, months, or longer.

Statistical expectation ≠ city/time forecast. Scientists can estimate that aftershock rates usually decay (Omori’s law), but Ring of Fire will not sell a product that names your city and a clock time for the next shock.

Why aftershocks happen

A large rupture changes stress on nearby faults. Some patches that were close to failing tip over. That produces a cloud of smaller (and occasionally still damaging) events around the mainshock zone.

Decay over time

On average, aftershock rates fall roughly like 1/time after the mainshock (Omori’s law and its variants). “On average” matters: individual days can still be busy, and occasionally a larger aftershock occurs late in the sequence.

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Safety

Damaged buildings can fail in aftershocks. Follow local officials. Our site is not a life-safety system.